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We have a Deal Now

Iran has reached a new deal with world's six super powers to temporarily curb its nuclear program in exchange for relief from the sanctions. You can see the detail of the agreement here.

The crucial part of the agreement is this:

Iran will stop enriching uranium beyond 5%, and will stop development of their Arak nuclear power plant. The UN will be granted greater access for inspections. In exchange, Iran will receive relief from sanctions of approximately US$7 billion (£4.3 billion) and no additional sanctions will be imposed.

Sanction has been very bad for Iran.

GJELTEN: Celeste, these are the most severe sanctions ever put in place against any country in history. And you're right, they are not just from the United States. There are United Nations sanctions. There are sanctions from the European Union. The really important ones are the ones that have made it just about impossible for Iran to sell oil. And oil sales are really important to the Iranian economy. Last summer, the European Union stopped buying oil from Iran. The United States stopped, a long time ago, buying oil from Iran, but also has introduced sanctions where we punish other countries that are buying oil from Iran. So the effect of all that has really been to cut back hard on Iran's oil sales and, therefore, its oil revenues.

Eighty percent of its foreign exchange comes from oil sales, so that has really hurt. And then another big element - I mean, there's a long list of sanctions, but another big element is Iran has basically been kicked out of the, what's called the, SWIFT system, which is how you transfer money electronically. Literally now, Celeste, if Iran earns money overseas, it almost has to bring the cash back in suitcases. That's what it's come to. So it's really hurting Iran.

I'm reading this article about how the sanction eventually worked in bringing Iran back to the negotiation table.

There's widespread agreement that sanctions have worked, squeezing Iran financially and bringing its leaders to the negotiating table. Iran's economy is, by any measure, in terrible shape.

"The cost of living has gone up so fast for Iranians that they are absolutely stunned, and people are simply not able to maintain the middle-class lifestyles that they used to," Slavin says.

Iran's official inflation rate is about 40 percent. By comparison, inflation in the U.S. is less than 2 percent, and many outsiders believe prices are rising even faster in Iran than the government says, especially for food.

the massive plunge in the value of Iran's currency — the rial — over the past two years, has made inflation more pernicious. Because the rial is so weak, Iranians have to pay a lot more for imported goods. And oil, Iran's main export and the heart of its economy, is being sidelined by sanctions.

Folks in America would probably become crazy if the price of everything increased by 40% and the value of dollars became almost worthless.


As expected, not all the Iranians are happy with this new deal.

First, let’s read the views from the reactionary, non-thinking, no-vision, still sore losers faction from Iran hard-liners whose candidates didn't win the recent election (Iran election coverage on my blog link 1, link 2, link 3, link 4)

The news site Alef, affiliated with prominent conservatives, ran pieces questioning the agreement’s technical details (one piece noted discrepancies with what had been published in a White House briefing paper) and lamenting the position of weakness from which Iran had been forced to negotiate. “Why Was Zarif Empty Handed?” the site asked, arguing that “there is no doubt the agreement is oppressive” but that Zarif’s failures must be viewed in the context of the bargaining position he inherited from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government.

The question of enrichment emerged on Monday as a point of contention, with some hardline sites like the newspaper Kayhan arguing that nowhere in the agreement had the West conceded Iran’s right to enrich. Much of the criticism raised a day after the agreement centered around its technical and economic aspects, as some conservatives and hardliners sought to present their objections in a substantive rather than partisan light. The website Fars News said it had done the math, and found that “the points gained and the points conceded didn’t add up,” arguing that by failing to secure lasting relief from oil and banking sanctions, Iran would still lose in a month what it had gained in the unleashing of some $4.2 billion of its foreign exchange reserves, previously frozen as a result of international sanctions.

The reformist faction, whose candidate is the current President of Iran had this to say:

The country’s reformist papers ran special editions on Sunday highlighting the agreement’s success in securing sanctions relief, and kept up the bright coverage on Monday. Photos of Zarif dominated the front pages, with the newspaper Arman-e Emrooz declaring that “We Must Give Zarif a Gold Medal,” the daily Aftab headlining “Smiling Diplomat: We Thank You,” and in the newspaper Ebtekar, “A Historic Dawn in Geneva.”

But not everyone is happy it seems.

Saudi Arabia with the support of Qatar and other despotic Sunni Arab regimes, currently fighting a proxy war against Iran-via-Syria, is very unhappy that a deal was reached between Iran and the West (namely the USA) especially after their petition to obliterate Hafiz al-Assad and most of Syria was rejected by the White House (remember Obama's infamous red line incident).

Saudi Arabia resented the fact that the US-Iranian talks had been kept secret from Saudi Arabia, and felt that it had been double-crossed by a major ally. "We will be there to stop them, wherever they are," he said. "we can't tolerate the blaring of Persian music in the middle of Homs"

Saudi Arabia, to put bluntly, sounds like a whinny little poodle.

Some members of the US Congress are very disappointed that the US under the leadership of Barack Obama made a deal with one of the countries in the axis-of-evil. (link)

Iran has a history of obfuscation that demands verification of its activities and places the burden on the regime to prove it is upholding its obligations in good faith while a final deal is pursued. – John Boehner (Republican)

The U.S. should not weaken existing United Nations Security Council demands that Iran fully suspend its nuclear activities, including enrichment. Loosening sanctions and recognizing Iran's enrichment program is a mistake, and will not stop Iran's march toward nuclear capability." - Eric Cantor (Republican)

“The disproportionality of this agreement makes it more likely that Democrats and Republicans will join together and pass additional sanctions when we return in December. It was strong sanctions, not the goodness of the hearts of the Iranian leaders, that brought Iran to the table. And any reduction relieves the pressure of sanctions and gives them the hope that they will be able to obtain a nuclear weapon - Sen. Chuck Schumer (Democratic)

“We need to be very, very careful with the Iranians. I don’t trust them. I don’t think we should trust them,” - Rep. Eliot Engel (Democratic)

Israel is also very critical of the deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu labeled the deal an "historic mistake".

The crux of the growing US-Israel divide is the fact that the two countries simply don't see eye-to-eye on Iran's nuclear program. The Israelis want a complete dismantling of Iran's capabilities – a position that is unrealistic and short of using military force is never going to happen. Iran has progressed so far along the road to developing a nuclear capability that the issue today is what is the best way to slow the program and prevent Iran from going nuclear rather than reversing it.

Indeed, if Netanyahu stepped back from his red line, he might actually realize that the deal signed in Geneva goes a long way towards meeting that goal. In fact, it is rather shocking the number of concessions the US and its western allies were able to secure in Geneva without giving up that much in return. Under the agreement, Iran must stop all uranium enrichment above 5% and neutralize its stockpile of uranium that has been enriched to 20%. In addition, Iran must halt construction at the Arak nuclear reactor (which was potentially capable of producing plutonium for a bomb) and end the production, installation and maintenance of centrifuges used for enrichment purposes.

Most opinions seem to be that this was a fair deal for Iran (in regards to their bargaining position) and a very very good deal for the world super powers (considering their wealth and position).

Iran's diplomat that made this deal possible is Mohammad Javad Zarif. After 8 years of embarrassment, international failure and diplomatic mishaps under Ahmadinejad, I guess Iran finally found someone that actually understand how to fix Iran's problem with the west. He sounds like an interesting guy.

Before leaving the hotel that morning, Zarif took a few moments to go up to his room on the 14th floor to update his Twitter and Facebook accounts. "We have reached an agreement," he tweeted at 3.03am local time.

With that simple message, the 53-year-old showed that President Hassan Rouhani's best decision upon assuming office was to appoint him as the man in charge of reviving Tehran's diplomacy, which had been badly damaged under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

According to Kamal Kharazi, a former Iranian foreign minister, it was Khamenei who personally gave Zarif permission to talk directly to the US at that time.

At the UN the ambassador was praised for his diplomatic manner even by the Islamic republic's sworn enemies. The former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger reportedly gave him a copy of his 1994 book Diplomacy, signing it "To Zarif, my respectful enemy".

Although it was Rouhani who chose Zarif as foreign minister, his appointment would have been impossible without the blessing of Khamenei, now Iran's supreme leader. It is widely believed that Zarif secured Khamenei's trust during his time at the UN by being an obedient servant, even though at times he held different views.

With more than 700,000 likes on Facebook and 87,000 followers on Twitter, Zarif is perhaps the Islamic republic's most popular diplomat since 1979.

Jewish Atheism

Definition: Jewish atheism refers to atheism as practised by people who are ethnically, and to some extent culturally, Jewish.


Based on some numbers from Wikipedia: 50% of the American Jews doubts the existence of God. Not shocking at all. I've always expected this. The Jews, at least the American Jews, are very liberal and secular.

The mainstream Jews mostly subscribe to the idea of Judaism that emphasis practice more over belief (e.g belief in God is not a necessary prerequisite to Jewish observance).

But not everyone agrees with this ideology.

However, Orthodox Judaism regards the acceptance of the "Yoke of Heaven" (the sovereignty of the God of Israel in the world and the divine origin of the Torah) as a fundamental obligation for Jews.

What works in their favor:

Much recent Jewish theology makes few if any metaphysical claims and is thus compatible with atheism on an ontological level.

Now, if you are a secular Jew and don't believe in all the religious mumbo-jumbo, then where do you stand or what actually defines you as a Jew?

The article on Wikipedia stated that an atheist Jew would probably identify with

- Jewish history and peoplehood, immersion in Jewish literature
- The consumption of Jewish food and an attachment to Jewish languages, festivals etc

Notable personalities: Albert Einstein, Karl Marx, Sigmund Freud, Golda Meir, Woody Allen

Jewish Atheism is interesting. I think their moto should be "You don't have to be embarrassed about your lack of belief or disbelief".

ShiaChat is down!

Yes. ShiaChat is still down. Don't really know what has happened. I've not been on the site for about a week now. Hopefully they can get the site fix soon.

Iran's response to Reuter's article

Reuters has published Iran's response to their three part article series about Khamenei's wealth and asset. Not surprisingly, Iran completely rejects the analysis and further accuses the authors of indulging in misinformation.

Reuters, however is standing by their claim.

Barb Burg, a Reuters spokesperson, said the news agency stands by the accuracy and fairness of its articles. Its estimate of Setad's net worth was based on an analysis of statements by Setad officials, data from the Tehran Stock Exchange and company websites, and information from the U.S. Treasury Department.

They didn't get back to the investigators/authors

A spokesman for Setad did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

While critical of Reuters investigation, the IRNA text did not address Reuters key findings, namely the confiscation of property or Setad's stakes in nearly every sector of the Iranian economy, including finance, oil, telecommunications and pharmaceutical companies.

Iran didn't like the article very much, yet is not ready to reveal more information about all these organizations that are well connected to Khamenei.

Khamenei's Wealth and Power - Part 3

The third part of the article is out at the Reuters Investigates site. Part 1 and Part 2 is also available.

Many of you will find this article interesting because it attempt to uncover/unravel Khamenei's grip of power and influence on Iran for the past 24 years by inspecting organizations that are directly under his patronage.

The first organization is Setad.

The organization's total worth is difficult to pinpoint because of the secrecy of its accounts. But Setad's holdings of real estate, corporate stakes and other assets total about $95 billion, Reuters has calculated. That estimate is based on an analysis of statements by Setad officials, data from the Tehran Stock Exchange and company websites, and information from the U.S. Treasury Department. Just one person controls that economic empire – Khamenei. Reuters found no evidence that Khamenei is tapping Setad to enrich himself. But Setad has empowered him. Through Setad, Khamenei has at his disposal financial resources whose value rivals the holdings of the shah, the Western-backed monarch who was overthrown in 1979.

With those revenues, the organization also helps to fund the ultimate seat of power in Iran, the Beite Rahbar, or Leader's House, according to a former Setad employee and other people familiar with the matter. The first supreme leader, Khomeini, had a small staff. To run the country today, Khamenei employs about 500 people in his administrative offices, many recruited from the military and security services.

Setad, however, is a much broader operation than these foundations. It's unclear how much of its revenue goes to philanthropy. Iranians whose properties have been seized by Setad, as well as lawyers who have handled such cases, dispute the argument that the organization is acting in the public interest. They described to Reuters what amounts to a methodical moneymaking scheme in which Setad obtains court orders under false pretenses to seize properties, and later pressures owners to buy them back or pay huge fees to recover them.

According to one of its co-founders, Setad was meant to last two years. But under Khamenei's control, it remained in business, amassing a giant portfolio of real estate by claiming in Iranian courts, sometimes falsely, that the properties were abandoned. In
fact, many were seized from members of religious minorities, and business people and other Iranians living abroad.

Khamenei appoints Setad's board of directors but delegates management of the organization to others, according to one former employee. This person said the supreme leader is primarily concerned about one thing: its annual profits, which he uses to fund his bureaucracy.

As expected, the authors of this article couldn't get any comments or feedbacks from the people in charge of the organization. Even the Iranians that are currently serving in the governmental sectors are refusing to cooperate.

The second organization is the powerful Guards

"The Revolutionary Guards, the powerful military unit tasked with protecting Iran from both domestic and foreign threats, has long held a pivotal role in the country's economy, with extensive holdings in defense, construction and oil industries, according to the U.S. State Department.

According to Mohsen Sazegara, a co-founder of the Revolutionary Guards who is now in exile in the United States, Khamenei allowed the Guards to enter the construction business. That opening eventually enabled an engineering division of the Guards to evolve into a major conglomerate. In time the Guards became a pillar of Khamenei's power. So too did Setad.

"

The Guardian Council http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guardian_Council

Even before then, Setad had been drawing attention from the reformist wing of the establishment. During Khatami's second term, moderate members of parliament sought to investigate Setad, according to Nayyeri. The Guardian Council, a body of conservative clerics and jurists who are directly or indirectly appointed by Khamenei, issued a declaration that Setad was beyond parliament's authority, Nayyeri said.

Elections in 2008 brought a strongly conservative parliament deeply loyal to Khamenei. In one of its first steps, parliament amended its bylaws to limit its own power to audit institutions under the supreme leader's supervision, except with his permission.

"This is the reason why no one knows what is going on inside these organizations," says Sazegara, the Guards co-founder.

Today, Khamenei's power in some respects exceeds that of his predecessor. He lacks the religious authority of Khomeini but has far greater resources at his disposal.

Khomeini operated from a modest house in northern Tehran with a small staff. Khamenei lives in a large compound in Tehran. The grounds contain a variety of buildings, including a large hall where Khamenei gives speeches. Setad helps to finance his administrative offices, which are known as Beite Rahbar, the Leader's House, according to a former senior Setad employee and other people familiar with its operations. It employs about 500 people, many recruited from the Guards and security services.

This is what I concluded from the article:
The authors stated that Khamenei never fails to portray himself as a highly religious and pious/modest scholar. Everyone agrees to that at least. The authors wanted us to disregard that for a moment, and examine the way he has consolidated his powers and wealth via private organizations (Setad, Revolutionary Guard,) that are not very transparent and are ridiculously faithful only to him. By giving these examples, one can compare the current supreme leader with the previous one; and unlike Khomeini, Khamenei is running a huge beuracray (thousands of time larger).

Authors attempted to highlight that Khameini is sitting comfortably on billions of dollars supposedly invested by his "companies" that supposedly work for the good of people. But since these organizations are only accountable to Khamenei and Khamenei is not accountable to anyone, so there's a disconnect between Khameini's public personality with what is going on privately in the background.

I think what is lacking in this article is maybe some more details or discussion on why the Leader of Iran needs his own private personal army and why he is operating these secretive and private organizations away from the other branches of the government or seperate from the office of the Presidency. Based on my observation, most of the supporters of the Wilayah al-Faqih system (Supreme Leader) claim that he is entitled to all these because of his position as the Supreme Leader. This doesn't really sit well with me because Shias generally don't believe in a temporal power on earth, at least not in the curent Era. I don't think Shias should make an exception for Iran due to a political system. Because everyone knows that this style of thinking has created many dictatorship with lifetime tenures. Look around you, they are everywhere.

Khamenei's Wealth and Power

I'm reading an article (published yesterday Nov, 11, 2013) about Iranian Supreme Leader's (Khamenei) Wealth and Assets. This is a three-part article. Part three will be out tomorrow.

A little bit of background first:

Khomenei, the founder of the Islamic republic of Iran, passed away in 1989. It was hard to find a successor that embodies Khomeini's qualification, leadership quality and charisma. The one person who knew the political system well and was a big supporter of it was sacked by Khomeini himself. The sacking of Khomeini's deputy, Montazeri, for irrecoverable differences became a huge scandal over the period of time among political Shias, especially since it was found later on that Montazeri was probably framed and had least blood on his hands than the rest of the political Ayatullahs. After participating in Khomeini's strict Islamic regime, the ever devious Hashemi Rafsanjani thought the least evil candidate was the humble junior Ayatullah with the least religious qualification and not overtly obvious political aspiration by the name of Ali Khamenei. Rafsanjani, playing on the emotions of Khomeini's supporters who by then were still distraught over the death of their leader, managed to swiftly pass Khamenei's candidacy across the now almost worthless majlis (assembly of experts) which then was responsible for evaluating Supreme Leader qualification and personality(?). Much has been written on this; look it up if you are interested. Over the years, Khamenei, knowingly or unknowingly, had assembled mass powers and also wealth for his supporters much to the disgust of the ordinary Iranians.


The article that I'm reading goes behind the secretive world of Iran's supreme leader; people and organization associated with him. Like always, everything that comes out of Iran are not 100% truth or false. So treat everything as if it's half-truth.

http://www.reuters.com/investigates/iran/#article/part1

http://www.reuters.com/investigates/iran/#article/part2

Woman can't drive her sick father to the hospital

Yesterday's news

A Kuwaiti woman was arrested in Saudi Arabia for driving a car while taking her diabetic father to the hospital.
The woman was driving a Chevrolet Epica with her father in the passenger seat when she was pulled over in an area located near the border with Kuwait, Saudi police told Kuwait Times newspaper.
She explained that she was taking her sick father to the hospital, but officers were unsympathetic. The woman was detained and is now being held in custody pending an investigation, police said.

About a week ago, sixty women in Saudi Arabia protested the no-driving-by-female rule by going out on roads in their cars. Sixteen of the female drivers were prosecuted and charge under this outdated regulation supported mostly by the religious zealots in the Kingdom. You can hardly find any other country in the world (Muslim or otherwise, civilized or uncivilized), apart from Saudi Arabia, that is more repressive (officially) towards the female gender. So, you can imagine that we are really dealing with a misogynist society where discrimination and hatred against the female are not only tolerated but actively promoted (officially).

The Mullahs, after not finding any justification from Islam to bar women from driving, came out with an even more creative reason, this year.

On October 23rd a group of 200-odd clerics gathered outside the royal court to denounce what they described as a “conspiracy” to put women behind the wheel. Last month Sheikh Salah al-Luhaydan, a well-known cleric who also practises psychology, claimed on a popular Saudi website that it has been scientifically proved that driving “affects the ovaries” and leads to clinical disorders in the children of women who are foolish enough to drive.

A few years ago, the Saudi Arabian Mullahs, to justify the kingdom's driving ban against the women, ratiocinate that driving may leave women susceptible to harm (eg. kidnapping). Even if kidnapping became a problem in the Kingdom, which is not at the moment, the safest place you can actually be is in your car. You are able to secure yourself by locking the car doors; you can also run down the potential kidnappers.

Mullahs are not logical thinkers. They are also not scientist or psychologist. You cannot even depend on them for enlightening you about Islamic teaching.

I'm not following the middle eastern news very closely nowadays or this event particularly but I'm quite happy that I didn't see a PR lady on TV defending the kingdom of Saudi Arabia discriminatory practices. Almost every year, you can see a dumb hijabi (covered fully from head to toe even the face) coming on TV defending the kingdom practices against what she sees as the attack by the feminists. Every discussion with her typically ends with "Women don't need to learn how to drive or drive anywhere by herself because they have chauffeurs to take them everywhere."

References
http://rt.com/news/woman-arrest-driving-saudi-164/
http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21588438-will-saudi-women-ever-be-allowed-behind-wheel-car-ovarian-issue
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_rights_in_Saudi_Arabia

Arab Shia

In June (can't really believe that that was five months ago), I was reading a book about the Iraqi Shias[1]. I managed to finish reading it in record time (24 or 48 hours). Unfortunately, I didn't get to create many blog posts based off the book. I'm thinking of going through it again, and summarizing key details.

I'm particularly interested in the Iraqi Shias in the context of them being Arab first and Shia second. Prior to this, I've examine a few articles about the forgotten Shias of Saudi Arabia. What? You didn't know there are/were Shias in Saudi Arabia?

The official interpretation of Islam in Saudi Arabia is Wahabism (also sometimes referred to as Salafism). This sect only gain prominence in the holy cities in the last two hundred years via tribal warfare. Prior to it being the state religion, after being adopted by the reigning tribe (the Sauds) and being forced upon the inhabitant of that geographical area (now known as Saudi Arabia), most of the people were followers of the orthodox schools of Islam (Sunnism and Shiasm).

People who are very ignorant of Shiasm frequently confuse Shiism as an Iranian sect or religion. The history of Shiism in Iran is very brief/short. Iranians started converting to the Islamic faith within the first 25 years after the death of the Holy Prophet when its territory was conquered by the Arabs. For the next thousand or so years, Iranians were officially followers of Sunnism until the Safavid came to power in the 15th century.

Also, many of the Sunnis living in the middle eastern or African countries (Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Sudan etc) didn't really become Muslim or Arab until they were converted to Islam by their Arab or non-Arab conqueror and adopted the Arabic language.

On the other hand, the Iraqi Shias have a very long and unique history due in part because of the strong tradition of being very close and faithful to the family of the Holy Prophet.

The author of the book [1] introduce Shias of Iraq as

"Shia Islam was closely associated with Iraq as several of the formative events of Shia history took place there. In AD 661, Ali ibn Abi Talib, the fourth caliph and the first Shia Imam, was assassinated in a mosque in Kufa. Ali's son, Husayn, who laid claim to the caliphate, was killed in a battle which took place on the plain of Karbala in 680 A.D. Many of the twelve Shia Imams spent at least part of their lives in Iraq."

to be continued...


Reference
[1] Yitzhak Nakash, The Shia of Iraq, 1994, Princeton University Press, ISBN: 13579108642

Need to be motivated

to work on my blog.

I haven't been blogging as often as I could/should. I think I wasn't motivated enough. Blogging requires dedication. I'm lacking that too. 2013 seems to be the shortest year I've had experience. While I'm pleasantly satisfied with the many tangible milestones I've accomplished this year (in my life); I'm not very happy with the state of my blog.

In the past, I used to be able to write three articles per week at the minimum. Three complete articles. I was also reading a lot. Nowadays, I'm not able to get even a single article written. Often time, after finishing writing a post, I don't feel like posting it. Articles get queued up in the blogger interface; I lose interest and do not revisit them again.

The first step in getting this blog on track is de-cluttering the queue. I need to look over the drafts and salvage what I can. This may take a few weeks at most.

Then, I need to make a list of articles and books that I have been reading especially for my blog. I'm thinking that rather than starting with something new, it's better if I can revisit and expand on some of my old discussions.

Reading. I'm going to start slow. A few pages per day. Set small goals. Don't make reading, a joyful experience, into a burden.

Writing. Don't be lazy. Force yourself to write a paragraph or two of your ideas and thoughts.

Thinking. Don't be scarred to be controversial. If you are not controversial then you are probably not thinking much.

More..coming soon.